Digest of Findings

A report from the Southern Regional Education Board, September 1998

The following is a digest of the findings of the report. These results are drawn from the analysis, maps, tables, and figures contained in the report. The purpose of the digest is to provide the reader with a brief, but comprehensive, overview of the findings of the report.

District Clusters
To make the analysis of the report possible, a number of methods were used to help make the complexity of understanding supply and demand a bit more tractable. Notably, Oklahoma is largely a rural state with a number of large urban areas. The top 37 districts (less than 7 percent of all districts) account for 50 percent of the educator workforce. With more than 500 districts, it is necessary to group districts. To better analyze the data, clusters - based on the size of districts - were created. The clusters were constructed on "natural" breaks in the data, and in total show fairly similar numbers for total educators as the table indicates. The clusters have been broadly designated as urban (clusters 1-4), mid-size (clusters 5-8) and rural (clusters 9-10). The analysis that follows uses these clusters to discuss issues concerning supply and demand.

Profile of the Oklahoma Public Educator Workforce

Educators by Position

Of note is that elementary and early childhood education comprise more than 40 percent of the workforce. Its share is much greater than high school or middle school or special education or administration and staff.
All high school categories add to less than 30 percent of the workforce, middle school is at about 9 percent. Special education is 9.5 percent. Administration and staff are almost 13 percent.

Gender by Primary Position

The lowest percentage female is found in administrative positions: in 1996 only 28.7% were female. However, that percentage has increased in recent years.
Women also show low percentages in high school other (30.2%), high school physics (32.3%), high school social studies (38.3%), high school other science (44%), and middle school other (46.6%).
In 1996, the highest female representation is for early childhood (99.5%), librarians (96.3%), special education (92.1%), middle school language arts (91.7%), and elementary (90.9%), high school language arts (87.1%), middle school foreign languages (84.4%), high school foreign languages (84.9%), and guidance counselors (79%).
Females represent 74% of the total educator workforce for 1994, 1995, and 1996 each.
There is an upward trend in the male share of the total educator workforce as school districts get smaller - largely due to the large number of small districts, and the predominance of males in administrative positions.

Ethnicity by Primary Position

The percent ethnicity by group has remained stable over the past three years. Small increases were seen in all non-white groups excluding the "other" category.
Examining ethnicity by primary position shows advances in administrative positions by African Americans and Hispanics. Native Americans declined slightly in the most recent year, as have Whites. African Americans are more highly represented in this position than their representation in the total educator workforce
Guidance counselors show increases for Whites, African Americans, and Native Americans in numbers, but only an increase - percentage wise - for Native Americans.
Librarian share by ethnicity have been largely stable, and predominately White.
Other Professional Staff shows a small decline in the number of African Americans and Native Americans. Whites drop from 1995 to 1996.
Special Education shows an increase in Native Americans and Whites, in numbers. African Americans and Hispanics increase slightly. African Americans are more highly represented in this position than their representation in the total educator workforce
Early Childhood shows small increases for Native Americans and African Americans. Whites increase in number, but decrease in share. Native Americans are more highly represented in this position than their representation in the total educator workforce.
Elementary shows a decline in White and African American teachers and increases in Native American and Hispanic teachers.
Middle school results show fairly stable results. More educators are identified in specific positions from 1995 to 1996, moving out of both the middle school and high school "Other" categories. African Americans show the greatest share in language arts and vocational education, Native Americans in social studies, and Hispanics in foreign languages in 1996.
For high school, the greatest representation for Whites is in physics, for African Americans in social studies and biology, for Native Americans in arts and music, chemistry, and other science, and for Hispanics the greatest representation is in foreign languages.
Art and Music shows an increase in the number of African Americans, though their share decreases.
Social studies shows an increase in African Americans, both in number and in share. There is a decline in the number and share of Native Americans.
All ethnic groups increase in number in foreign languages. The number and share of Hispanics has increased steadily.
African Americans increase both in number and share in high school mathematics.
African Americans have increased in both number and share in high school chemistry.
There are no African Americans in primary positions as physics teachers. This does not mean there are no African Americans teaching physics. The total number of primary positions in physics decreased from 1994 to 1995, and then increased from 1995 to 1996.
African Americans and Native Americans have increased both in number and share in high school other sciences.
The number of African Americans and Native Americans increased in both number and share for high school vocational education.

Ethnicity by District Clusters

When ethnicity is examined using the district clusters, the most urban districts (cluster 1) show a large percent of African Americans (21%).
The percentage of Native Americans increases with the smaller clusters, the largest percentage (9%) being for cluster 10, where districts have less than 26 educators.
Hispanics show mixed results, but the largest numbers are for clusters 1 and 2, the most urban among the districts.

Trends in Enrollments

There is a very stable the ratio of educators to students as the size of the district changes - the ratio being about 13 students per educator over all the districts in the State of Oklahoma.
There is considerable diversity among districts in the State of Oklahoma in changing its workforce size given changes in its enrollments.
Over the last five years total enrollments have increased by a steady 1% rate per year, adding to a 4% increase, or an increase of 25,220 students. Grades groups showed mixed results in terms of increases and declines.
Pre-kindergarten grades have shown very erratic growth over the period.
The size of kindergarten enrollments increased 12% from 1993 to 1997.
From 1993-97, grades 1-5 decreased 2% or by 5,936 students.
Over the same period grades 6-8 increased 6% or by 8,704 students.
High school students showed the greatest increase in number: 17,089 students or an 11% increase.
Ungraded students increased in number by 62, or 4 percent
Live births, which influences the number of kindergarten students 5 years hence, have declined from 1991 to 1995 by 1363 births, or about 3 percent.
Live births increased in 1996 by 734 to 46129, or a 1.6% increase.
Plotting kindergarten enrollments and live births it can be seen that enrolled kindergarten students actually exceed the number of total live births recorded 5 years earlier. This increase can be due to net in-migration - or to increasing range of ages included in kindergarten grades (thereby, in effect, combining birth cohorts). However, the SDE enrollment data shows that the inclusion of earlier ages is not the case.
The district clusters, generally, show a steady increase in total enrollments from 1993 to 1997. Only Cluster 2 (an urban district) shows a decline from 1996 to 1997 for total enrollments.
Cluster 2 also shows sustained losses in kindergarten, grades 1-5, and ungraded students.
Steady decreases, or no gains, in grades 1 to 5 also show up for virtually all the district clusters over the last 5 years.
All district clusters, except Cluster 1, show declines for grades 6-8 from 1996 to 1997.
Alternately, all of the districts have shown gains in high school students for all the years from 1993 to 1997.
In the future, the system, as a whole, will experience the declining number of elementary and middle school students moving into the high school grades. The start of this can be seen in a decline in grades 6-8 among all the districts from 1996 to 1997. These declines will ripple through the high school grades, reducing demand for high school educators, unless offset by an unforeseen in-migration of population to make those, and all other grades, increase in size.
The long-term influence of kindergarten entries is more uncertain. Live births, as shown above, have declined, and the influence of the declines in live births from 1993 to 1996 has not yet been observed in the kindergarten enrollment data. However, the number of kindergarten students in recent years is observed to be greater than the correlated live births from 5 years earlier, suggesting in-migration - as discussed above.
There are substantial increases in kindergarten enrollments for Clusters 6 through 10 (rural districts).

Demand Indicators

Emergency Certificates

Areas in special education show the greatest number of emergency certificates, notably areas for emotionally disturbed (20), learning disability (20), and mentally handicapped (14). The only other special education area is speech language pathology with 1 certificate.
Other areas of concern are Spanish, where 13 certificates were granted (Spanish elem/sec at 7, and Spanish at 6). Science areas add to 17 (chemistry 4, physical science 4, biology 3, physics 3, earth science 1, science MS-Jr high 1, Zoology 1). Math areas add to 7 (algebra 3, math MS-Jr high 2, geometry 1, trigonometry 1), and social studies areas at 20 (American history 5, geography 5, Oklahoma history 3, world history 3, U.S. government 2, economics 1, social studies MS-Jr. high 1). Music required 13 certificates (music general 6, music vocal 5, music instrumental 3).
There is a high correlation between the size of the district and the number of certificates requested. Tulsa and Oklahoma City have 13% of the educators in the state, and about 15% of the emergency certificates.
100 districts requested at least 1 emergency certificate. Of that 100, 36 requested more than 1, and 13 requested more than 2 certificates.
Of these 100 districts requesting emergency certificates: 77 experienced increases in enrollments, 61 experienced declines in their total workforces, 41 were cases where the enrollment growth outpaced the workforce growth - per the earlier analysis.

Enrollment Growth and Educator Growth
Though there are numerous districts where enrollment growth is outpacing educator growth (41% of all districts), only 26% of those districts (61 districts in all) requested emergency certificates. This suggests that districts are managing their response to increased enrollments and/or decreased workforces due to attrition outpacing hiring, well.

Student to Teacher Ratios in Districts

In general, the student to teacher ratios observed in the data show that Oklahoma is doing well in maintaining the great majority of their classes within low ranges of the student to teacher ratio.
All of special education has classes of size 15 or less.
More than 82% or early childhood type classes have 20 or less students per class.
Elementary has 92% of their classes with less than 26 students per class.
The great majority of middle school classes have less than 31 students-as is the case for high school.

Summary of Demand Indicators

In general, Oklahoma is filling its demand very well. No policy changes are warranted at this time, though the system should be monitored for any signs of change in demand and supply.
There are a small number of emergency certificates and the student to teacher ratios are largely on target.
Though there are numerous districts where enrollment growth is outpacing educator growth (41% of all districts), only 26% of those districts (61 districts in all) requested emergency certificates.

Sources of Supply
Positions vary greatly by their source of supply. Supply derives from a number of different sources, primarily retention of educators from one year to the next, rehiring former educators, and hiring individuals with no previous experience as educators (largely new college graduates). Those educators who are retained can be retained in the same or different position, in the same or another district. The following provides a profile of the sources of supply.

Profile of Types of Supply

New Entrants

Among all the primary positions, early childhood has the highest percentage of its supply from Oklahoma IHEs, at 8.5%, followed by middle school foreign language (7.8%), and middle school vocational education (7.5%).
The lowest percentage of supply drawn from new entrants from Oklahoma IHEs was administrative (0.0%).
For sources of new educators other than Oklahoma public IHEs, middle school foreign language showed the greatest percentage of supply compared to other positions (6.7%).

Reentrants

High school chemistry had the greatest percentage of reentrants from out of state (3.1%), followed by middle school vocational education.
High school physics showed the greatest percent of reentrants that had attended an Oklahoma IHE while out of the educator workforce (3.1%).
Middle school foreign language teachers showed the greatest percentage of reentrants that were neither out of state, nor had attended an Oklahoma IHE during their absence (5.6%).

Retained

Elementary teachers showed the greatest number retained in the same district and position from one year to the next (91.8%).
The lowest percentage retained in the same district and the same position was high school biology at 51.5%.
The highest percentage retained in the same district, but to a different position is also high school biology at 33.8%.
The highest percentage retained to a different district but the same position is the administrative position (4.2%).
The highest percentage retained to a different district and a different position is high school biology at 3.7%.
In terms of retention to a following year, 92% of librarians stay in the same district and the same position. High school biology teachers, again, show the highest percentage retained in the same district but a different position at 46.5%.
Administrative positions show the greatest percent retained to the same position from a different district (4.2%), and early childhood shows the greatest percentage retained to a different district in a different position (5.2%).
High school physics shows the highest attrition rate at 12.4%, followed by middle school foreign language (11.8%).
Early childhood shows the highest percentage of those exiting and entering an Oklahoma IHE (0.6%).
The transfers to the administrative positions derive largely from other administrative positions.
About 3% of the high school physics teachers moved into administrative positions from 1995 to 1996.
Librarians are very stable group, 99% of the librarians in the previous year remained librarians in the next year.
Early childhood teachers move about 9% of their retained to elementary.
There is considerable traffic from numerous positions into elementary positions (9% of the retained from early childhood, 3% of the retained from middle school foreign languages, etc.).
In special education 98% of the retained remain in special education.
Middle school teachers change positions to a much greater degree than elementary teachers do. For example, 69% of the 1995 foreign language teachers are retained in the same position, but 18% end up in middle school language arts as their primary position.
High school teachers in language arts, art and music, social studies and math retain 80% or more of their teachers in the same position from 1995 to 1996.
The sciences show a much greater degree of change. Only 49% of the biology teachers remain with biology as their primary position from 1995 to 1996. 31% end up in "Other Science" positions. Both chemistry and physics also show such changes.
Note that there is also some traffic between middle school and high school positions for the same subject areas such as language arts, art and music, social studies, foreign language, and math. (This can be seen by looking down the columns for the 1996 subject, and then observing which rows contribute primary position changes.)

What these changes suggest is that there is some slack or flexibility in redeploying educators from year to year to meet the changing conditions of demand.

Losing Supply: The Attrition of Educators

Attrition of Educators by Level of Experience

Attrition varies very predictably by the number of years of experience that an educator has accrued.
There is a fairly steady decline of attrition rates by levels of experience to roughly the 20th year of experience.
The steepest decline in the attrition rate is the first 4 years of experience. This is also the time of greatest mobility by teachers among districts.
After the 20th year, the attrition rate begins to increases as educators start to retire. Also, the rate of movement of educators to other districts decreases.
This "U-shape" curve marks the three periods in the career of the educator: new, mid-career, and late career. The attrition curve indicates that inexperienced teachers exit and move the most, mid career teachers are retained at rates of 96%, and that after 20 years teacher begin to retire at a slow but very steady rate.
In comparing the size of all experience cohorts, the largest cohort is composed of educators with 0 years experience; there are more teachers in that category than any other.
Teachers with 1 to 3 years experience follow in terms of size.
The cohort with the next largest number is at 15 years of experiences, where there is a bit of a plateau in the size of the cohorts ranging from 14 to 21 years of experience.
The median value for experience is 12 years. That is, half of the educators have 12 years or less of experience and half have more than 12 years of experience.
It is very important to note that the exit rates above the 20th year stay below 6 percent until the 25th year. At a 6 percent decline per year, it takes more than 10 years to reduce a cohort to half its size. After the first 5 years, 70 percent of a cohort remains. What this suggests is that the reduction in the size of more experienced educators will happen gradually and steadily over the next ten years, not suddenly.

Attrition by Position and Years of Experience

The highest levels of attrition are for middle school foreign languages and high school physics.
The lowest levels of attrition are for early childhood and middle school art and music.
Middle school foreign language has the highest percentage of new educators at 16%. The lowest level is 0% for administrators. Early childhood has the highest percentage of educators with 1-3 years of experience (38%). Again administrators are the lowest at this level (1%).
High school chemistry has the highest percentage at the 4-10 year experience level (34%). Administrators are the low at 8%. Librarians have the highest percentage at the 11-19 year level. Early childhood is the low at 13%.
Administrative positions have the highest percentage at the 20 year of more level of experience (61%). Early childhood is again the low at this level of experience, with only 5% with 20 years or more.

Attrition of Young Educators

Over the first three years of observing an entering cohort: 16% exited 21% moved for a district level attrition rate of 37%.

Attrition of Older Educators: Trends in Future Retirement

The total workforce increases from 7% eligible for normal retirement in 1995-96, to 25% eligible in 2000-2001.
These exits will begin to slowly play out over the next 10 years. Why is this? Observing particular experience cohorts shows that from 20 to 26 years of experience, the rate of attrition by experience cohort is less that 10%. For experience cohorts from 20 to 25 it is less than 6%. So though large numbers are moving into those experience levels, the rates of attrition rates increase by only 2-3% from the 10 to 19 year experience group unto 25 years of experience. Thus, there will be increased attrition and some increased demand in certain areas - but, unless greater incentives are put into place for retirement, there will be no catastrophic exodus of older teachers in the coming years.
Areas with potentially the highest turnover due to retirement are administrators, guidance counselors, librarians, high school physics, middle and high school social studies, high school language arts, and high school vocational education.

Source of Supply: Reentry of Experienced Educators

The majority of the reentry occurs in the first 2 years subsequent to the year of exit.
More than 35% of reentry from an exiting cohort occurs in the first year subsequent to exit, and the first two years subsequent to exit accounts from almost 50% of the total expected reentry from that group. The rate of reentry drops greatly after that.
It appears that yields (percent of exiting educators who return) stabilizes at around 35% of the total from an exiting cohort. This 35% rate stabilizes after about 11 years, as reentry after that point is usually less than 10 people per year from the cohort.
What these long term yields suggests is that the reserve pool of exiting teachers can be tapped for a long time, but at an ever-decreasing rate.
This indicates that a potentially substantial number of unemployed educators are willing, under the right conditions, either economically or personally, to rejoin the education workforce.
The areas where reentrants hold the highest share of the workforce in 1996 are middle school foreign language, high school physic, high school chemistry, and middle and high school "other" (see appendix 1 for subject areas under this rubric).
The areas with the least number are middle school science at 1%, and a range of areas at 2%. For the workforce as a whole, reentrants are at 2% of all supply.

Source of Supply: New Entry from Oklahoma Institutions of Higher Education
The primary source of entrance is inexperienced entrants who are graduates of institutions of higher education.

In general, the greatest number of entrants from a graduating cohort occurs in the first year after graduation. After that, as in the case of reentry previously discussed, the entrance rate declines greatly.
The average yield to employment in public education immediately after graduation is 33.6%, with a range of values from 23.8% to 42.1%. These numbers are not unusual compared to the results as shown in previous SREB studies examining the average yields to employment for bachelor degree recipients, who were education majors, immediately following graduation. For the states SREB examined the following yields were observed: Florida (30.0%), Georgia (24.5%), Kentucky (48.1%), South Carolina (32.7%), Tennessee (31.7%), and Texas (51.0%).
The entry from all Oklahoma institutions (meaning public and private), for all bachelor degree recipients shows a very stable pattern of entry. Roughly 6%-9% enter in the first year, and less than 2% in the second, with less than 1% henceforth.
In general, considering all bachelor degree graduates, public institutions yield twice as many in percentage terms and more than 14 times as many in numbers compared to private institutions.
Isolating education majors from the bachelor degree recipients, there are much higher yields. Private institutions yield 37% over five years and public institutions yield 47%.
As an example of yield to employment in Oklahoma public education, private institutions provided 84 entrants from 1991-92 to 1995-96 from its 1991-92 cohort, while public institutions provided 1243 entrants from its 1991-92 cohort.

Minority Graduates Yield to Employment in Oklahoma Public Education

Isolating all minority students from bachelor degree recipients, we observe much lower yields than for all graduates.
For private institutions the yields are less than 3% in the first year, and total entry very small. Its 1991-92 cohort yielded less than 1 percent over a five year period (0.6%).
For public institutions the yields are similarly low compared to all graduates, though substantially higher than private IHEs. Over five years, minorities yielded only 6.3% from the 1991-92 cohort.
Minority education majors from private institutions show lower yields than public institutions. Further, none enter in the first year of eligibility. This is not the case for public institutions. For public IHEs the majority of entrance occurs in the first year.
The total numbers of graduates for minority education majors is low until 1996, where the number of graduates increases dramatically from 24 to 129.
There is also a substantial increase in the number of minority graduates in public institutions, increasing from 307 eligible for entry in 1991-92 to 428 eligible for entry in 1995-96.
While the number of graduates has increased, the first year yields have dropped from 34.7% in 1992-93 to 24.3% in 1995-96.
Looking more closely at the minority data for public institutions, African Americans graduates have remained largely stable over the past 5 years, providing around 100 graduates. However, first year yield rates have been erratic ranging from 9.7% to 27.9%.
African American males have produced from 38 to 48 graduates per year, with first year yields ranging from 4.2% to 15.6%.
From the 40 African American male graduates from public institutions eligible for entry in 1991-92, only 7 had entered by 1995-96.
Native American graduates show high levels of first year yields ranging from 27.9% to 40.7%. Further, the total number of graduates has increased steadily from 148 eligible for entry in 1991-92 to 265 eligible for entry in 1995-96.
Hispanic graduates have increased in number from 22 eligible for entry in 1991-92, to 36 in 1995-96. However, the first year yield rates have been erratic ranging from 13.8% to 37.0%.

The Location of Colleges and Universities and Entrance in Local School Districts

There are distinct regional markets of supply, and the Oklahoma public institutions of higher education appears to be working effectively in its division of labor in terms of supplying those different regions.
IHEs that supply primarily urban districts are the Cameron University, University of Oklahoma, University of Central Oklahoma, Langston University, OU Health Service Center, University of Tulsa, Oklahoma City University, Oklahoma Christian University of Science & Arts, and Mid-American Bible College.
IHEs that supply primarily to mid-size districts are East Central University, University of Science & Arts of Oklahoma, and Bartlesville Wesleyan College, Oklahoma State University, Southwestern Oklahoma State University, and Southern Nazarene University
IHEs that supply primarily to rural districts are Northwestern Oklahoma State University, Southeastern Oklahoma State University, and Oklahoma Panhandle State University.

Colleges and Universities and Supply by Positions

The following analysis examines what kind of entrants—in terms of their primary position - the various Oklahoma IHEs have provided from 1992-93 to 1995-96 to the Oklahoma primary and post-secondary workforce.
NSU provided the greatest number of early childhood, elementary and special education entrants, and has provided the greatest numbers for other professional staff and middle school language arts, social studies, math, science, vocational education, other - and high school foreign language, language arts, and math.
OSU has provided the most entrants for high school social studies and high school vocational education.
SEOSU has provided the most entrants for librarians.
SWOSU has provided the most entrants for high school art and music.
OU has provided the most entrants for middle school art and music.
ECU has provided the most entrants for high school biology.
The number of entrants for high school chemistry and physics ranged from 1 to 3 for a number of schools.
In all cases, elementary educators, by far, lead other areas in terms of the percentage of entrants supplied. The percentages range from 30% to 100% of the graduates.
The second leader, percentage wise, is special education where percentages are as high as 56%, with numerous other schools above 10%.
The yield for all bachelor degree recipients who are education majors, for all the IHEs is 35% from 1994 to 1996.
East Central University has the highest yield of graduates to employment for education majors at 45%.
The University of Tulsa has the lowest yield of graduates to employment for education majors at 13%, but one of the highest for graduates who are non-education majors but who have teacher preparation courses.
The yield to employment for non-education majors with teacher preparation courses shows an overall rate of only 8%.
The school with the highest yield for non-education majors with teacher preparation courses is East Central University at 26%, followed by the University of Tulsa with 25%.
Numerous schools have yields below 5% for non-education majors with teacher preparation courses.

Yields to Employment by Academic Major

The academic areas with the greatest yield for non-education majors with teacher preparation courses are music, foreign languages, and mathematics.
The highest yields for all bachelor degree recipients who are education majors, for all the IHEs, are in the areas of special education learning disability at 59%, followed by mathematics at 54%, special education mentally handicapped at 59%, special education at 55%, foreign languages at 58%, and physics at 49%.
In general, yields rarely exceed 70% of those trained among all schools and academic areas for the bachelor degree education majors.

Taking the Next Step: IHE Graduates who Obtain Certification

The results show that about 86% of the graduates who become certified are hired.
In general, yields to hiring over all academic areas - for all bachelor degree recipients, once a graduate has obtained certification, is high, frequently above 75%.
The overall yield for non-education majors with teacher preparation, who have become certified, is 84%.
The overall yield for non-education majors with no record of teacher preparation, who have become certified, is 74%.
The overall yield to employment for graduates who obtain alternative certifications is 65%.
In a number of areas more than one certification shows a higher rate of hiring. These areas are: art, biology, business, chemistry, foreign languages, home economics, industrial education, language arts, mathematics, social studies, special education (emotionally disturbed), special education (learning disability), special education (mentally handicapped), special education (speech and hearing), and special education (deaf).
In general, yields to hiring, for bachelor degree recipients, over all academic areas is high, frequently above 80-85% for education majors.
In general, yields to hiring, for bachelor degree recipients, over all academic areas is high, frequently above 75%, with many cases of 100% being hired, for non-education majors who have take teacher preparation courses

Future Supply and Demand

Demand Projections
The total educator workforce is predicted to increase over the next five years, but at a somewhat slower pace than the previous five years.

The historical numbers of total educators from 1990 to 1996, and the projected total number of educators from 1997 to 2002. The total educator workforce is predicted to increase over the next five years, but at a somewhat slower pace than the previous five years.

Changes in Demand: Rural Districts

Substantial growth in the number of elementary teachers from 1998 to 2002
Small increases for early childhood teachers
Moderate increases in the demand for special education teachers
Moderate increase in the number of guidance counselors, administrative positions, librarians and professional staff

Changes in Demand: Mid-size Districts

In general, all of the high school categories are expanding in the mid-size clusters.
Elementary and middle school areas are holding constant, or are on the decline.
The changes projected for the high school level are quite small increases.
The smaller of the mid-size districts show an increase in demand for the special education, while the larger districts show a lessening of total demand.

Changes in Demand: Urban Districts

The urban districts show declines in the early childhood and elementary grades.
There are mixed results for special education, the most urban districts will show an overall small decline in the demand for special education, while the smallest of the urban districts will show a slight increase in demand.
All but the smallest urban districts show stable or mildly declining demand in middle schools.
Administrative positions, guidance counselors, other professional staff, and librarians show very small increases and declines among the four clusters that comprise the urban districts.
At the state level, elementary education will still make the greatest demands on the IHEs, increasing by about 5% from 1998 to 2002, while middle school and high school teachers are seen to grow at about 2% each.
Examining demand in terms of the cluster, the rural clusters show the greatest growth in demand. Clusters 8-10 show steady increases in the total workforce through the projection period.
The number of entrants demanded fluctuates by year for each of the clusters. However, after 5 years in the projection period (by 2002), clusters 1, 8, 9, and 10 observe increased demand for entry. That is to say, the most urban and the most rural districts show such growth.

Supply Considerations

Many Are Trained, Less Seek Certification

In general, the supply created by the public and private IHEs in the state produce ample candidates - in number. Observing entry over a period of 1993 to 1996, only about 40% of those trained with an education degree entered. The rates are much lower for graduates without education degrees, who have taken courses in teacher preparation (on average 90% do not enter - however there are areas that have rates at above 30% such as mathematics, music, and foreign languages). The yield increases dramatically once graduates obtain certification. The yields, in total, are in the range of 85%. That is to say, for those graduates who take the additional step to actually obtain a certification, only 15%, overall, do not obtain jobs in Oklahoma public primary and secondary education.

The Number Trained to be Educators Over the Regions Appears Adequate
The more difficult question is how particular regions are supplied. The IHEs do supply to the clusters in different ways. If we observe education majors - the dominant source of supply, there are many that are not hired.. Again, this seems to indicate that the number trained, in general, is not a problem.

High School Graduates Have Increased
It is important to note there has been a steady increase in the size of high school enrollments in recent years. These students are the candidates for higher education in the state. Assuming stable participation rates among existing age cohorts, we can expect the enrollments in higher education to increase. This portends that the number of individuals who could become potential educators will also expand. This will happen at a time when enrollments - assuming no unexpected macroeconomic changes that could influence in or out migration in the state - are growing, but at a rate slower that the previous historical years.

The Size of the Reserve Pool
There are a number of areas where the reserve pool shows less than 100 people: physics, chemistry, guidance, librarians, art and music for both high school and middle school, foreign languages for both high school and middle school. ESL teachers have only 14 people in the reserve pool, gifted and talented (8 people), driver’s education (19 people), and librarians (25 people). The areas of greatest supply in the reserve pool are elementary areas, social studies, language arts, science (as a group), mathematics (as a group), and business. Note that as specialties are broken out in math and science, small reserves begin to appear in areas such as calculus, statistics, earth science, and computer science. This is the case with special education which has approximately 319 persons as a group. As discussed earlier, emergency certificates were issued for emotionally disturbed, learning disability, and mentally handicapped. There are approximately 45 individuals with certificates for the emotionally disturbed, 108 individuals with certificates for learning disabilities, and 89 persons with certificates for the mentally handicapped.

Projected Supply and Demand Balance to the Year 2002

Areas of Adequate Supply

Administrative, Other Professional Staff, Early Childhood Education, Elementary, Middle School Language Arts, Middle School Social Studies, Middle School Math, Middle School Science, Middle School Vocational Education, Middle School Other, High School Language Arts, High School Social Studies, High School Vocational Education

Areas of Possible Shortages

High School Biology, High School Chemistry, High School Physics, High School Other Science (for earth science, and computer science), High School Other

Areas of Shortages

Guidance Counselors, Librarians, Special Education, Middle School Art and Music, Middle School Foreign Languages, High School Art and Music, High School Foreign Language, High School Math