The following is a digest of the findings of the report. These
results are drawn from the analysis, maps, tables, and figures contained
in the report. The purpose of the digest is to provide the reader with a
brief, but comprehensive, overview of the findings of the report.
To make the analysis of the report possible, a number of methods were used
to help make the complexity of understanding supply and demand a bit more
tractable. Notably, Oklahoma is largely a rural state with a number of large
urban areas. The top 37 districts (less than 7 percent of all districts)
account for 50 percent of the educator workforce. With more than 500 districts,
it is necessary to group districts. To better analyze the data, clusters—based
on the size of districts---were created. The clusters were constructed on
"natural" breaks in the data, and in total show fairly similar
numbers for total educators as the table indicates. The clusters have been
broadly designated as urban (clusters 1-4), mid-size (clusters 5-8) and
rural (clusters 9-10). The analysis that follows uses these clusters to
discuss issues concerning supply and demand.
- Of note is that elementary and early childhood education
comprise more than 40 percent of the workforce. Its share is much greater
than high school or middle school or special education or administration
and staff.
- All high school categories add to less than 30 percent
of the workforce, middle school is at about 9 percent. Special education
is 9.5 percent. Administration and staff are almost 13 percent.
- The lowest percentage female is found in administrative
positions: in 1996 only 28.7% were female. However, that percentage has
increased in recent years.
- Women also show low percentages in high school other (30.2%),
high school physics (32.3%), high school social studies (38.3%), high
school other science (44%), and middle school other (46.6%).
- In 1996, the highest female representation is for early
childhood (99.5%), librarians (96.3%), special education (92.1%), middle
school language arts (91.7%), and elementary (90.9%), high school language
arts (87.1%), middle school foreign languages (84.4%), high school foreign
languages (84.9%), and guidance counselors (79%).
- Females represent 74% of the total educator workforce for
1994, 1995, and 1996 each.
- There is an upward trend in the male share of the
total educator workforce as school districts get smaller---largely due
to the large number of small districts, and the predominance of males
in administrative positions.
- The percent ethnicity by group has remained stable over
the past three years. Small increases were seen in all non-white groups
excluding the "other" category.
- Examining ethnicity by primary position shows advances
in administrative positions by African Americans and Hispanics. Native
Americans declined slightly in the most recent year, as have Whites. African
Americans are more highly represented in this position than their representation
in the total educator workforce
- Guidance counselors show increases for Whites, African
Americans, and Native Americans in numbers, but only an increase—percentage
wise—for Native Americans.
- Librarian share by ethnicity have been largely stable,
and predominately White.
- Other Professional Staff shows a small decline in the number
of African Americans and Native Americans. Whites drop from 1995 to 1996.
- Special Education shows an increase in Native Americans
and Whites, in numbers. African Americans and Hispanics increase slightly.
African Americans are more highly represented in this position than their
representation in the total educator workforce
- Early Childhood shows small increases for Native Americans
and African Americans. Whites increase in number, but decrease in share.
Native Americans are more highly represented in this position than their
representation in the total educator workforce.
- Elementary shows a decline in White and African American
teachers and increases in Native American and Hispanic teachers.
- Middle school results show fairly stable results. More
educators are identified in specific positions from 1995 to 1996, moving
out of both the middle school and high school "Other" categories.
African Americans show the greatest share in language arts and vocational
education, Native Americans in social studies, and Hispanics in foreign
languages in 1996.
- For high school, the greatest representation for Whites
is in physics, for African Americans in social studies and biology, for
Native Americans in arts and music, chemistry, and other science, and
for Hispanics the greatest representation is in foreign languages.
- Art and Music shows an increase in the number of African
Americans, though their share decreases.
- Social studies shows an increase in African Americans,
both in number and in share. There is a decline in the number and share
of Native Americans.
- All ethnic groups increase in number in foreign languages.
The number and share of Hispanics has increased steadily.
- African Americans increase both in number and share in
high school mathematics.
- African Americans have increased in both number and share
in high school chemistry.
- There are no African Americans in primary positions as
physics teachers. This does not mean there are no African Americans teaching
physics. The total number of primary positions in physics decreased from
1994 to 1995, and then increased from 1995 to 1996.
- African Americans and Native Americans have increased both
in number and share in high school other sciences.
- The number of African Americans and Native Americans increased
in both number and share for high school vocational education.
- When ethnicity is examined using the district clusters,
the most urban districts (cluster 1) show a large percent of African Americans
(21%).
- The percentage of Native Americans increases with the smaller
clusters, the largest percentage (9%) being for cluster 10, where districts
have less than 26 educators.
- Hispanics show mixed results, but the largest numbers are
for clusters 1 and 2, the most urban among the districts.
- There is a very stable the ratio of educators to students
as the size of the district changes—the ratio being about 13 students
per educator over all the districts in the State of Oklahoma.
- There is considerable diversity among districts in the
State of Oklahoma in changing its workforce size given changes in its
enrollments.
- Over the last five years total enrollments have increased
by a steady 1% rate per year, adding to a 4% increase, or an increase
of 25,220 students. Grades groups showed mixed results in terms of increases
and declines.
- Pre-kindergarten grades have shown very erratic growth
over the period.
- The size of kindergarten enrollments increased 12% from
1993 to 1997.
- From 1993-97, grades 1-5 decreased 2% or by 5,936 students.
- Over the same period grades 6-8 increased 6% or by 8,704
students.
- High school students showed the greatest increase in number:
17,089 students or an 11% increase.
- Ungraded students increased in number by 62, or 4 percent
- Live births, which influences the number of kindergarten
students 5 years hence, have declined from 1991 to 1995 by 1363 births,
or about 3 percent.
- Live births increased in 1996 by 734 to 46129, or a 1.6%
increase.
- Plotting kindergarten enrollments and live births it can
be seen that enrolled kindergarten students actually exceed the number
of total live births recorded 5 years earlier. This increase can be due
to net in-migration—or to increasing range of ages included in kindergarten
grades (thereby, in effect, combining birth cohorts). However, the SDE
enrollment data shows that the inclusion of earlier ages is not the case.
- The district clusters, generally, show a steady increase
in total enrollments from 1993 to 1997. Only Cluster 2 (an urban district)
shows a decline from 1996 to 1997 for total enrollments.
- Cluster 2 also shows sustained losses in kindergarten,
grades 1-5, and ungraded students.
- Steady decreases, or no gains, in grades 1 to 5 also show
up for virtually all the district clusters over the last 5 years.
- All district clusters, except Cluster 1, show declines
for grades 6-8 from 1996 to 1997.
- Alternately, all of the districts have shown gains in high
school students for all the years from 1993 to 1997.
- In the future, the system, as a whole, will experience
the declining number of elementary and middle school students moving into
the high school grades. The start of this can be seen in a decline in
grades 6-8 among all the districts from 1996 to 1997. These declines will
ripple through the high school grades, reducing demand for high school
educators, unless offset by an unforeseen in-migration of population to
make those, and all other grades, increase in size.
- The long-term influence of kindergarten entries is more
uncertain. Live births, as shown above, have declined, and the influence
of the declines in live births from 1993 to 1996 has not yet been observed
in the kindergarten enrollment data. However, the number of kindergarten
students in recent years is observed to be greater than the correlated
live births from 5 years earlier, suggesting in-migration---as discussed
above.
- There are substantial increases in kindergarten enrollments
for Clusters 6 through 10 (rural districts).
- Areas in special education show the greatest number of
emergency certificates, notably areas for emotionally disturbed (20),
learning disability (20), and mentally handicapped (14). The only other
special education area is speech language pathology with 1 certificate.
- Other areas of concern are Spanish, where 13 certificates
were granted (Spanish elem/sec at 7, and Spanish at 6). Science areas
add to 17 (chemistry 4, physical science 4, biology 3, physics 3, earth
science 1, science MS-Jr high 1, Zoology 1). Math areas add to 7 (algebra
3, math MS-Jr high 2, geometry 1, trigonometry 1), and social studies
areas at 20 (American history 5, geography 5, Oklahoma history 3, world
history 3, U.S. government 2, economics 1, social studies MS-Jr. high
1). Music required 13 certificates (music general 6, music vocal 5, music
instrumental 3).
- There is a high correlation between the size of the district
and the number of certificates requested. Tulsa and Oklahoma City have
13% of the educators in the state, and about 15% of the emergency certificates.
- 100 districts requested at least 1 emergency certificate.
Of that 100, 36 requested more than 1, and 13 requested more than 2 certificates.
- Of these 100 districts requesting emergency certificates:
77 experienced increases in enrollments, 61 experienced declines in their
total workforces, 41 were cases where the enrollment growth outpaced the
workforce growth---per the earlier analysis.
Though there are numerous districts where enrollment
growth is outpacing educator growth (41% of all districts), only 26% of
those districts (61 districts in all) requested emergency certificates.
This suggests that districts are managing their response to increased enrollments
and/or decreased workforces due to attrition outpacing hiring, well.
- In general, the student to teacher ratios observed in the
data show that Oklahoma is doing well in maintaining the great majority
of their classes within low ranges of the student to teacher ratio.
- All of special education has classes of size 15 or less.
- More than 82% or early childhood type classes have 20 or
less students per class.
- Elementary has 92% of their classes with less than 26 students
per class.
- The great majority of middle school classes have less than
31 students---as is the case for high school.
- In general, Oklahoma is filling its demand very well. No
policy changes are warranted at this time, though the system should be
monitored for any signs of change in demand and supply.
- There are a small number of emergency certificates and
the student to teacher ratios are largely on target.
Positions vary greatly by their source of supply.
Supply derives from a number of different sources, primarily retention of
educators from one year to the next, rehiring former educators, and hiring
individuals with no previous experience as educators (largely new college
graduates). Those educators who are retained can be retained in the same
or different position, in the same or another district. The following provides
a profile of the sources of supply.
- Among all the primary positions, early childhood has the
highest percentage of its supply from Oklahoma IHEs, at 8.5%, followed
by middle school foreign language (7.8%), and middle school vocational
education (7.5%).
- The lowest percentage of supply drawn from new entrants
from Oklahoma IHEs was administrative (0.0%).
- For sources of new educators other than Oklahoma public
IHEs, middle school foreign language showed the greatest percentage of
supply compared to other positions (6.7%).
- High school chemistry had the greatest percentage of reentrants from
out of state (3.1%), followed by middle school vocational education.
- High school physics showed the greatest percent of reentrants that had
attended an Oklahoma IHE while out of the educator workforce (3.1%).
- Middle school foreign language teachers showed the greatest percentage
of reentrants that were neither out of state, nor had attended an Oklahoma
IHE during their absence (5.6%).
- Elementary teachers showed the greatest number retained
in the same district and position from one year to the next (91.8%).
- The lowest percentage retained in the same district and
the same position was high school biology at 51.5%.
- The highest percentage retained in the same district, but
to a different position is also high school biology at 33.8%.
- The highest percentage retained to a different district
but the same position is the administrative position (4.2%).
- The highest percentage retained to a different district
and a different position is high school biology at 3.7%.
- In terms of retention to a following year, 92% of librarians
stay in the same district and the same position. High school biology teachers,
again, show the highest percentage retained in the same district but a
different position at 46.5%.
- Administrative positions show the greatest percent retained
to the same position from a different district (4.2%), and early childhood
shows the greatest percentage retained to a different district in a different
position (5.2%).
- High school physics shows the highest attrition rate at
12.4%, followed by middle school foreign language (11.8%).
- Early childhood shows the highest percentage of those exiting
and entering an Oklahoma IHE (0.6%).
- The transfers to the administrative positions derive largely
from other administrative positions.
- About 3% of the high school physics teachers moved into
administrative positions from 1995 to 1996.
- Librarians are very stable group, 99% of the librarians
in the previous year remained librarians in the next year.
- Early childhood teachers move about 9% of their retained
to elementary.
- There is considerable traffic from numerous positions into
elementary positions (9% of the retained from early childhood, 3% of the
retained from middle school foreign languages, etc.).
- In special education 98% of the retained remain in special
education.
- Middle school teachers change positions to a much greater
degree than elementary teachers do. For example, 69% of the 1995 foreign
language teachers are retained in the same position, but 18% end up in
middle school language arts as their primary position.
- High school teachers in language arts, art and music, social
studies and math retain 80% or more of their teachers in the same position
from 1995 to 1996.
- The sciences show a much greater degree of change. Only
49% of the biology teachers remain with biology as their primary position
from 1995 to 1996. 31% end up in "Other Science" positions.
Both chemistry and physics also show such changes.
- Note that there is also some traffic between middle school
and high school positions for the same subject areas such as language
arts, art and music, social studies, foreign language, and math. (This
can be seen by looking down the columns for the 1996 subject, and then
observing which rows contribute primary position changes.)
What these changes suggest is that there is some slack or
flexibility in redeploying educators from year to year to meet the changing
conditions of demand.
- Attrition varies very predictably by the number of years
of experience that an educator has accrued.
- There is a fairly steady decline of attrition rates by
levels of experience to roughly the 20th year of experience. \
- The steepest decline in the attrition rate is the first
4 years of experience. This is also the time of greatest mobility by teachers
among districts.
- After the 20th year, the attrition rate begins to increases
as educators start to retire. Also, the rate of movement of educators
to other districts decreases.
- This "U-shape" curve marks the three periods
in the career of the educator: new, mid-career, and late career. The attrition
curve indicates that inexperienced teachers exit and move the most, mid
career teachers are retained at rates of 96%, and that after 20 years
teacher begin to retire at a slow but very steady rate.
- In comparing the size of all experience cohorts, the largest
cohort is composed of educators with 0 years experience; there are more
teachers in that category than any other.
- Teachers with 1 to 3 years experience follow in terms of
size.
- The cohort with the next largest number is at 15 years
of experiences, where there is a bit of a plateau in the size of the cohorts
ranging from 14 to 21 years of experience.
- The median value for experience is 12 years. That is, half
of the educators have 12 years or less of experience and half have more
than 12 years of experience.
- It is very important to note that the exit rates
above the 20th year stay below 6 percent until the 25th year. At a 6 percent
decline per year, it takes more than 10 years to reduce a cohort to half
its size. After the first 5 years, 70 percent of a cohort remains. What
this suggests is that the reduction in the size of more experienced educators
will happen gradually and steadily over the next ten years, not suddenly.
- The highest levels of attrition are for middle school foreign
languages and high school physics.
- The lowest levels of attrition are for early childhood
and middle school art and music.
- Middle school foreign language has the highest percentage
of new educators at 16%. The lowest level is 0% for administrators. Early
childhood has the highest percentage of educators with 1-3 years of experience
(38%). Again administrators are the lowest at this level (1%).
- High school chemistry has the highest percentage at the
4-10 year experience level (34%). Administrators are the low at 8%. Librarians
have the highest percentage at the 11-19 year level. Early childhood is
the low at 13%.
- Administrative positions have the highest percentage
at the 20 year of more level of experience (61%). Early childhood is again
the low at this level of experience, with only 5% with 20 years or more.
- Over the first three years of observing an entering cohort:
16% exited 21% moved for a district level attrition rate of 37%.
- The total workforce increases from 7% eligible for normal
retirement in 1995-96, to 25% eligible in 2000-2001.
- These exits will begin to slowly play out over the next
10 years. Why is this? Observing particular experience cohorts shows that
from 20 to 26 years of experience, the rate of attrition by experience
cohort is less that 10%. For experience cohorts from 20 to 25 it is less
than 6%. So though large numbers are moving into those experience levels,
the rates of attrition rates increase by only 2-3% from the 10 to 19 year
experience group unto 25 years of experience. Thus, there will be increased
attrition and some increased demand in certain areas—but, unless
greater incentives are put into place for retirement, there will be no
catastrophic exodus of older teachers in the coming years.
- Areas with potentially the highest turnover due to retirement
are administrators, guidance counselors, librarians, high school physics,
middle and high school social studies, high school language arts, and
high school vocational education.
- The majority of the reentry occurs in the first 2 years
subsequent to the year of exit.
- More than 35% of reentry from an exiting cohort occurs
in the first year subsequent to exit, and the first two years subsequent
to exit accounts from almost 50% of the total expected reentry from that
group. The rate of reentry drops greatly after that.
- It appears that yields (percent of exiting educators who
return) stabilizes at around 35% of the total from an exiting cohort.
This 35% rate stabilizes after about 11 years, as reentry after that point
is usually less than 10 people per year from the cohort.
- What these long term yields suggests is that the reserve
pool of exiting teachers can be tapped for a long time, but at an ever-decreasing
rate.
- This indicates that a potentially substantial number of
unemployed educators are willing, under the right conditions, either economically
or personally, to rejoin the education workforce.
- The areas where reentrants hold the highest share of the
workforce in 1996 are middle school foreign language, high school physic,
high school chemistry, and middle and high school "other" (see
appendix 1 for subject areas under this rubric).
- The areas with the least number are middle school science
at 1%, and a range of areas at 2%. For the workforce as a whole, reentrants
are at 2% of all supply.
The primary source of entrance is inexperienced
entrants who are graduates of institutions of higher education.
- In general, the greatest number of entrants from a graduating
cohort occurs in the first year after graduation. After that, as in the
case of reentry previously discussed, the entrance rate declines greatly.
- The average yield to employment in public education immediately
after graduation is 33.6%, with a range of values from 23.8% to 42.1%.
These numbers are not unusual compared to the results as shown in previous
SREB studies examining the average yields to employment for bachelor degree
recipients, who were education majors, immediately following graduation.
For the states SREB examined the following yields were observed: Florida
(30.0%), Georgia (24.5%), Kentucky (48.1%), South Carolina (32.7%), Tennessee
(31.7%), and Texas (51.0%).
- The entry from all Oklahoma institutions (meaning public
and private), for all bachelor degree recipients shows a very stable pattern
of entry. Roughly 6%-9% enter in the first year, and less than 2% in the
second, with less than 1% henceforth.
- In general, considering all bachelor degree graduates,
public institutions yield twice as many in percentage terms and more than
14 times as many in numbers compared to private institutions.
- Isolating education majors from the bachelor degree recipients,
there are much higher yields. Private institutions yield 37% over five
years and public institutions yield 47%.
- As an example of yield to employment in Oklahoma public
education, private institutions provided 84 entrants from 1991-92 to 1995-96
from its 1991-92 cohort, while public institutions provided 1243 entrants
from its 1991-92 cohort.
- Isolating all minority students from bachelor degree recipients,
we observe much lower yields than for all graduates.
- For private institutions the yields are less than 3% in
the first year, and total entry very small. Its 1991-92 cohort yielded
less than 1 percent over a five year period (0.6%).
- For public institutions the yields are similarly low compared
to all graduates, though substantially higher than private IHEs. Over
five years, minorities yielded only 6.3% from the 1991-92 cohort.
- Minority education majors from private institutions show
lower yields than public institutions. Further, none enter in the first
year of eligibility. This is not the case for public institutions. For
public IHEs the majority of entrance occurs in the first year.
- The total numbers of graduates for minority education majors
is low until 1996, where the number of graduates increases dramatically
from 24 to 129.
- There is also a substantial increase in the number of minority
graduates in public institutions, increasing from 307 eligible for entry
in 1991-92 to 428 eligible for entry in 1995-96.
- While the number of graduates has increased, the first
year yields have dropped from 34.7% in 1992-93 to 24.3% in 1995-96.
- Looking more closely at the minority data for public institutions,
African Americans graduates have remained largely stable over the past
5 years, providing around 100 graduates. However, first year yield rates
have been erratic ranging from 9.7% to 27.9%.
- African American males have produced from 38 to 48 graduates
per year, with first year yields ranging from 4.2% to 15.6%.
- From the 40 African American male graduates from public
institutions eligible for entry in 1991-92, only 7 had entered by 1995-96.
- Native American graduates show high levels of first year
yields ranging from 27.9% to 40.7%. Further, the total number of graduates
has increased steadily from 148 eligible for entry in 1991-92 to 265 eligible
for entry in 1995-96.
- Hispanic graduates have increased in number from 22 eligible
for entry in 1991-92, to 36 in 1995-96. However, the first year yield
rates have been erratic ranging from 13.8% to 37.0%.
- There are distinct regional markets of supply, and the
Oklahoma public institutions of higher education appears to be working
effectively in its division of labor in terms of supplying those different
regions.
- IHEs that supply primarily urban districts are the Cameron
University, University of Oklahoma, University of Central Oklahoma, Langston
University, OU Health Service Center, University of Tulsa, Oklahoma City
University, Oklahoma Christian University of Science & Arts, and Mid-American
Bible College.
- IHEs that supply primarily to mid-size districts are East
Central University, University of Science & Arts of Oklahoma, and
Bartlesville Wesleyan College, Oklahoma State University, Southwestern
Oklahoma State University, and Southern Nazarene University
- IHEs that supply primarily to rural districts are Northwestern
Oklahoma State University, Southeastern Oklahoma State University, and
Oklahoma Panhandle State University.
- The following analysis examines what kind of entrants—in
terms of their primary position---the various Oklahoma IHEs have provided
from 1992-93 to 1995-96 to the Oklahoma primary and post-secondary workforce.
- NSU provided the greatest number of early childhood, elementary
and special education entrants, and has provided the greatest numbers
for other professional staff and middle school language arts, social studies,
math, science, vocational education, other---and high school foreign language,
language arts, and math.
- OSU has provided the most entrants for high school social
studies and high school vocational education.
- SEOSU has provided the most entrants for librarians.
- SWOSU has provided the most entrants for high school art
and music.
- OU has provided the most entrants for middle school art
and music.
- ECU has provided the most entrants for high school biology.
- The number of entrants for high school chemistry and physics
ranged from 1 to 3 for a number of schools.
- In all cases, elementary educators, by far, lead other
areas in terms of the percentage of entrants supplied. The percentages
range from 30% to 100% of the graduates.
- The second leader, percentage wise, is special education
where percentages are as high as 56%, with numerous other schools above
10%.
- The yield for all bachelor degree recipients who are education
majors, for all the IHEs is 35% from 1994 to 1996.
- East Central University has the highest yield of graduates
to employment for education majors at 45%.
- The University of Tulsa has the lowest yield of graduates
to employment for education majors at 13%, but one of the highest for
graduates who are non-education majors but who have teacher preparation
courses.
- The yield to employment for non-education majors with teacher
preparation courses shows an overall rate of only 8%.
- The school with the highest yield for non-education majors
with teacher preparation courses is East Central University at 26%, followed
by the University of Tulsa with 25%.
- Numerous schools have yields below 5% for non-education
majors with teacher preparation courses.
- The academic areas with the greatest yield for non-education
majors with teacher preparation courses are music, foreign languages,
and mathematics.
- The highest yields for all bachelor degree recipients who
are education majors, for all the IHEs, are in the areas of special education
learning disability at 59%, followed by mathematics at 54%, special education
mentally handicapped at 59%, special education at 55%, foreign languages
at 58%, and physics at 49%.
- In general, yields rarely exceed 70% of those trained among
all schools and academic areas for the bachelor degree education majors.
- The results show that about 86% of the graduates who become
certified are hired.
- In general, yields to hiring over all academic areas—for
all bachelor degree recipients, once a graduate has obtained certification,
is high, frequently above 75%.
- The overall yield for non-education majors with teacher
preparation, who have become certified, is 84%.
- The overall yield for non-education majors with no record
of teacher preparation, who have become certified, is 74%.
- The overall yield to employment for graduates who obtain
alternative certifications is 65%.
- In a number of areas more than one certification shows
a higher rate of hiring. These areas are: art, biology, business, chemistry,
foreign languages, home economics, industrial education, language arts,
mathematics, social studies, special education (emotionally disturbed),
special education (learning disability), special education (mentally handicapped),
special education (speech and hearing), and special education (deaf).
- In general, yields to hiring, for bachelor degree recipients,
over all academic areas is high, frequently above 80-85% for education
majors.
- In general, yields to hiring, for bachelor degree recipients,
over all academic areas is high, frequently above 75%, with many cases
of 100% being hired, for non-education majors who have take teacher preparation
courses
The total educator workforce is predicted to increase
over the next five years, but at a somewhat slower pace than the previous
five years.
The historical numbers of total educators from 1990 to 1996,
and the projected total number of educators from 1997 to 2002. The total
educator workforce is predicted to increase over the next five years, but
at a somewhat slower pace than the previous five years.
- Substantial growth in the number of elementary teachers
from 1998 to 2002
- Small increases for early childhood teachers
- Moderate increases in the demand for special education
teachers
- Moderate increase in the number of guidance counselors,
administrative positions, librarians and professional staff
- In general, all of the high school categories are expanding
in the mid-size clusters.
- Elementary and middle school areas are holding constant,
or are on the decline.
- The changes projected for the high school level are quite
small increases.
- The smaller of the mid-size districts show an increase
in demand for the special education, while the larger districts show a
lessening of total demand.
- The urban districts show declines in the early childhood
and elementary grades.
- There are mixed results for special education, the most
urban districts will show an overall small decline in the demand for special
education, while the smallest of the urban districts will show a slight
increase in demand.
- All but the smallest urban districts show stable or mildly
declining demand in middle schools.
- Administrative positions, guidance counselors, other professional
staff, and librarians show very small increases and declines among the
four clusters that comprise the urban districts.
- At the state level, elementary education will still make
the greatest demands on the IHEs, increasing by about 5% from 1998 to
2002, while middle school and high school teachers are seen to grow at
about 2% each.
- Examining demand in terms of the cluster, the rural clusters
show the greatest growth in demand. Clusters 8-10 show steady increases
in the total workforce through the projection period.
- The number of entrants demanded fluctuates by year
for each of the clusters. However, after 5 years in the projection period
(by 2002), clusters 1, 8, 9, and 10 observe increased demand for entry.
That is to say, the most urban and the most rural districts show such
growth.
- Many Are Trained, Less Seek Certification
In general, the supply created by the public and private IHEs
in the state produce ample candidates---in number. Observing entry over
a period of 1993 to 1996, only about 40% of those trained with an education
degree entered. The rates are much lower for graduates without education
degrees, who have taken courses in teacher preparation (on average 90% do
not enter--however there are areas that have rates at above 30% such as
mathematics, music, and foreign languages). The yield increases dramatically
once graduates obtain certification. The yields, in total, are in the range
of 85%. That is to say, for those graduates who take the additional step
to actually obtain a certification, only 15%, overall, do not obtain jobs
in Oklahoma public primary and secondary education.
The more difficult question is how particular
regions are supplied. The IHEs do supply to the clusters in different ways.
If we observe education majors---the dominant source of supply, there are
many that are not hired.. Again, this seems to indicate that the number
trained, in general, is not a problem.
It is important to note there has been a steady
increase in the size of high school enrollments in recent years. These students
are the candidates for higher education in the state. Assuming stable participation
rates among existing age cohorts, we can expect the enrollments in higher
education to increase. This portends that the number of individuals who
could become potential educators will also expand. This will happen at a
time when enrollments ----assuming no unexpected macroeconomic changes that
could influence in or out migration in the state ---are growing, but at
a rate slower that the previous historical years.
There are a number of areas where the reserve
pool shows less than 100 people: physics, chemistry, guidance, librarians,
art and music for both high school and middle school, foreign languages
for both high school and middle school. ESL teachers have only 14 people
in the reserve pool, gifted and talented (8 people), driver’s education
(19 people), and librarians (25 people). The areas of greatest supply in
the reserve pool are elementary areas, social studies, language arts, science
(as a group), mathematics (as a group), and business. Note that as specialties
are broken out in math and science, small reserves begin to appear in areas
such as calculus, statistics, earth science, and computer science. This
is the case with special education which has approximately 319 persons as
a group. As discussed earlier, emergency certificates were issued for emotionally
disturbed, learning disability, and mentally handicapped. There are approximately
45 individuals with certificates for the emotionally disturbed, 108 individuals
with certificates for learning disabilities, and 89 persons with certificates
for the mentally handicapped.
- Administrative, Other Professional Staff, Early Childhood
Education, Elementary, Middle School Language Arts, Middle School Social
Studies, Middle School Math, Middle School Science, Middle School Vocational
Education, Middle School Other, High School Language Arts, High School
Social Studies, High School Vocational Education
- High School Biology, High School Chemistry, High School
Physics, High School Other Science (for earth science, and computer science),
High School Other
- Guidance Counselors, Librarians, Special Education, Middle
School Art and Music, Middle School Foreign Languages, High School Art
and Music, High School Foreign Language, High School Math
