Schools are being strongly encouraged to offer and promote more rigorous course work to help increase skills necessary for success in postsecondary education and the workforce. Participation and success in Advanced Placement (AP) and honors courses is one indicator of students’ educational preparedness for postsecondary education and the workforce. As a result, there has been increased interest in these courses and particularly students’ likely success in them.
Predicting whether students are likely to succeed in AP courses is an important challenge for educators. ACT is pleased to announce results of recent research that makes this predictive task easier and more accurate. ACT’s PLAN test scores were found to be good predictors of success in selected AP courses, as defined by getting a score of 3 or higher on the appropriate AP test. This information is intended to help schools identify students who are likely to be successful in AP courses, including those students who otherwise might not plan to take AP course work, but not to deny students the opportunity to participate in challenging courses.
This page summarizes the results for a selected set of PLAN scores and AP test scores. Additional results using other PLAN scores or score combinations can be obtained from your regional ACT office at the contact information noted below.
Data
AP student records (2,060 students) were matched with the PLAN student records from 1997-98 to 2000-01. In 1999, a preliminary study was conducted to link PLAN scores with AP scores, resulting in 1,560 matched PLAN/AP records. In total, there were 2,589 matched PLAN/AP records representing schools and districts from the eastern and central regions of the U.S.
The following AP tests were studied:
AP Test |
Number of Matched PLAN Records |
|---|---|
| U.S. History | 593 |
| European History | 261 |
| U.S. Government | 159 |
| Biology | 184 |
| English Language | 404 |
| English Literature | 507 |
| Calculus AB | 237 |
Method
All AP scores were correlated with PLAN Composite scores as well as with their corresponding content area scores. All correlations were statistically significant (p< .001). Additionally, averaged PLAN English & Reading and Mathematics & Science scores were created for each student and correlated with relevant AP test scores. Correlations with the PLAN Composite ranged from .33 for Calculus AB to .57 for English Language. For virtually all AP courses except Calculus AB, the PLAN Composite had the highest correlations with AP test scores. For Calculus AB, the combined PLAN Mathematics and Science scores had the highest correlation (.40). Compared to the correlations reported by the College Board, all PLAN/AP correlations were somewhat smaller.
The somewhat lower correlations might be due to the fact that the matched records from this study were restricted to those with relatively high PLAN scores and, for some AP tests like European History, high AP scores. An alternative method for looking at the relationships between PLAN and AP scores was to determine the extent to which students could be correctly identified as scoring a 3 or higher on an AP test using the PLAN score corresponding to a chance of .75. Using the PLAN Composite, 69 percent (Calculus AB and European History) to 84 percent (US Government) of all PLAN-tested students would be correctly identified. For Calculus AB, using PLAN Mathematics and Science scores jointly would result in 75 percent of students being correctly identified.
PLAN scores were then used to predict students’ chances of a 3 or higher AP test score. Table 1 below provides the PLAN test scores and corresponding probabilities of a 3 or higher score on each of the AP tests of interest using the PLAN Composite or PLAN Mathematics and Science used jointly. The PLAN score in each table corresponding to a 75 percent or higher chance of a 3 or higher score is shaded.
Table I: PLAN Score Corresponding to a Student’s Chance of a 3 or Higher AP Score (PDF, 117k)
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